Onion production may fall 20%, potato output by 5% in 2023-24, shows third advance estimate

New Delhi: India’s horticulture production is likely to decline by a marginal 0.65% to 353.19 million tonnes in 2023-24, according to the government’s third advance estimates released on Saturday.

The country’s horticulture production is estimated to fall 0.65% year-on-year to 353.19 million tonnes in 2023-24. The second advance estimates for 2023-24, released in June, had predicted total production of horticultural crops at 352.23 million tonnes.

Onion production is likely to drop by 19.76% to 24.24 million tonne due to lower yields in key regions. Other vegetables such as brinjal, elephant foot yam, and capsicum may also see reduced output. 

Mint reported on 7 September that onion production may face a dip due to excessive rainfall predicted by the India Meteorological Department.

Potato production is set to decline by 5.13% to 57.05 million tonnes. These drops could pose challenges in controlling prices of two essential items, which play a crucial role in food inflation.

India’s retail inflation rose to 3.65% in August, slightly higher than 3.6% reported in July. The inflation was within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 2-6%. 

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Despite fluctuations in individual crop yields, overall vegetable production is projected to remain stable at 205.80 million tonnes. 

The estimates showed significant increases in the production of tomatoes, cabbages, cauliflowers, tapioca, bottle gourd, pumpkin, carrots, cucumbers, bitter gourd, parwal, and okra.

Tomato production is seen rising by 4.38% to 21.32 million tonnes, driven by last year’s price surge. Prices of the kitchen staple skyrocketed last year to as high as ₹250 per kg, prompting farmers to increase cultivation in the hope of capitalising on the higher market prices.

The rise in tomato output has helped reduce the cost of meals, with vegetarian thalis down by 8% year-on-year and non-vegetarian meals by 12%.

Fruit production is expected to grow by 2.29%, reaching 112.73 million tonnes, led by mangoes, bananas, and other fruits. 

Though apples, sweet oranges, guavas, and pomegranates are expected to see a decline, it is unlikely to overshadow the surge in fruit exports, which is helping fill the gap in export volumes created by the longstanding bans on cereals such as rice and wheat. 

The government also estimated the production of honey, flowers, plantation crops, spices, and aromatic and medicinal plants to register an increase over the previous year’s final estimates.

India’s fresh fruits and vegetables export rose by 14% in FY24 to $3.65 billion.