Above-normal maximum temperatures during April-June will not have an impact on kharif sowing but farmers could be hit by increased irrigation costs, experts said. The matter assumes significance as agriculture contributes around 18% to India’s GDP.
” I don’t think so high temperature, would be having any impact on Kharif crop sowing especially paddy which commands major area under Kharif. At the moment, I am waiting for the India Meteorological Department (IMD) monsoon prediction which will be announced in mid-Aptil. If there is normal, above- normal rainfall or good rainfall then there is no need to worry. The heat wave conditions can impact only crop like tomato,” said Ashok Gulati, agricultural economist and former chairman, Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices.
Major Kharif crops include rice, maize, soyabean and bajra. In addition, pulses like Arhar, Urad and Moong are also sown. In the 2024 kharif season, paddy was sown over 41 million hectares, pulses over12.77 million hectares, coarse cereals such as Jowar, Bajra18.96 million hectares and oilseeds 19.33 million hectares.
Hotter-than-usual summer
In the latest weather prediction, IMD on Monday warned that most parts of the country are expected to have a hotter-than-usual summer during April to June this year. States which are likely to see above-normal heatwave days are Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and the northern parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
“There would not be any impact on Kharif sowing because of a hotter summer. The only cause of concern is that if the temperature remains high, it may affect crops such as summer moong and maize which is largely grown in the eastern part of the country,” said Dr C. Viswanathan, Joint Director-Research, The Indian Agricultural Research Institute.
Last year, the total area under moong was 3.52 million hectares and maize was grown over 8.75 million hectares in the kharif season.
Irrigation costs to rise
However, experts said a hotter summer will increase irrigation cost.
“Higher temperatures will result in more demand for water for irrigation which will affect sowing & initial phase of growth of Kharif crops. IMD forecasts of above average temperature in April will result in higher demand of diesel and electricity for irrigation in rainfed areas. It may result in lower acreage and reduced productivity because of heat stress,” said Prof. Sudhir Panwar, farm expert and ex-member of UP planning commission.
“For example, in Uttar Pradesh the power supply for agriculture has been reduced from 9 hours to 7 hours, that too in two phases. Farmers may decide to reduce crop area particularly paddy in water-scarce areas because of high diesel cost and volatility of Kharif crop market,”he added.
In 2024, Kharif production, above-normal monsoons, and an adequate reservoir level supported agricultural growth. As per the second advanced estimates of agricultural production announced in March by the ministry of agriculture, in 2024-25, total Kharif food grain production is estimated at a record 154.1million metric tonnes. A normal southwest monsoon in 2024 improved the water levels in reservoirs, ensuring sufficient water for irrigation during the rabi crop production.
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