Justin Trudeau resignation
Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as the prime minister of Canada and leader of the Liberal Party on Monday. What next for Canada? And will the development bring a decisive shift in India-Canada relations? Mint explains:
What next after Trudeau’s resignation?
With Canada’s Parliament prorogued until March, the opposition’s effort to bring a no-confidence motion stands stalled. Trudeau’s Liberal Party, in all likelihood, would like to elect a new leader before March, but the process can take longer. Any incumbent leader will have a tough call as the government needs the backing of 338 members of Parliament in a no-confidence vote. The Liberals are 17 members short. The Left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) has declined to offer support. If the government loses the confidence motion, it is expected to resign or seek the dissolution of Parliament, triggering a federal election.
Why were India-Canada relations strained under Trudeau?
India-Canada relations hit rock bottom last year over the killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia. Canada claimed that it had credible evidence that Indian agents were behind the killing of Nijjar, a Canadian citizen. India vehemently denied the charge, calling it ‘motivated ‘ and ‘preposterous’. While Trudeau put India-Canada relations on a diplomatic hot plate, the move also indicated his last-ditch and desperate attempt, amid declining popularity, to pander to the Sikh diaspora in the country, many of whom have been supporters of the Liberal Party.
Who could lead the Liberal Party?
Trudeau’s resignation means the Liberal Party has to choose a new leader, ideally within two months. Prominent Liberal names doing the rounds as his replacement include the former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, transport minister Anita Anand, and formal central banker Mark Carney. Even if the Liberal Party brings about a leadership transition, it might not result in a win given the growing double-digit popularity of the Conservative Party and its leader, Pierre Poilievre.
What does Trudeau’s resignation mean for Canada on the global stage?
The world will closely watch how Canada’s new leadership navigates its role on the international front on three important counts. One, how they respond to US president-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats. Two, Canada’s position on climate financing and clean energy push. And three, a decline of Liberal politics in Canada might signal the rise of populist politics tinged in anti-immigration measures, withdrawal from global environmental sustainability measures, and trade cooperation—which, in many ways, might be another blow to a liberal world order.
What will all these mean for India-Canada relations?
India will closely watch the transitions, both in terms of the Liberal Party’s leadership and the likelihood of federal power transition to the Conservative Party. While Trudeau adopted a confrontational stance with India, a new leadership might need to re-think this approach. However, India needs to have a firm grip on reality: Poilievre, if elected to power, might continue to browbeat around polarizing nationalist favour. Amid the India-Canada diplomatic row last year, Poilievre pulled out of a Diwali event and has not yet clearly outlined his position on India.
(Shweta Singh is associate professor, Department of International Relations, South Asian University)