What was long feared has just happened. After months of provocation by Israel, overnight missile strikes on Israel by Iran may have brought the world closer to the precipice. Now, any efforts to contain Iran will need the US to rein in Israel. Is it too late? Mint explains:
After Iran’s missile strike on Israel, the situation in the region is poised to escalate further. Israel has promised retaliation, though the timing and scope remain unclear. Iran, through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has warned that any Israeli counterattack will lead to more Iranian strikes, intensifying the conflict.
The missile strike follows weeks of heightened tensions, largely due to Israeli operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel’s military has already activated its highest defenses and is coordinating with U.S. forces to counter future threats. The situation is further complicated by Iran’s extensive network of proxies across the Middle East, including Hezbollah and Hamas, which could be mobilized if the conflict widens.
Given these dynamics, experts anticipate a prolonged and potentially widespread military engagement. While Israel’s defense systems successfully intercepted most of the Iranian missiles, the conflict raises serious concerns about broader regional instability, including threats to global oil supplies and shipping routes. Diplomatic efforts may seek to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a larger regional war, but the immediate future is marked by uncertainty as both sides brace for further escalation
Why did Iran attack Israel? (Iranian missile strikes)
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said that the attack was in response to the killings of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoshan by Israel in Lebanon. It also noted the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. The attack is more than a military offensive. It indicates a belligerent Tehran delivering the message that if there is an attack on its sovereignty, it will not hold back from a direct offensive. As Israel and its ally US try to blunt Iran’s allies Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza, Iranian missile strikes, Iran has driven the message home loud and clear.
What comes next? (Iranian missile strikes)
The strikes by Iran, Iranian missile strikes in response to months of Israeli provocation, may have brought the world closer to a catastrophic war. The next few months will be crucial as Israel, Iran and its proxies, Iranian missile strikes and other regional and global actors calibrate their next moves. Israel, with US backing, has vowed to avenge the strike. The raging war in West Asia needs to be read in the context of two contending scripts for regional order. One is led by Israel and the US, which sees Iran and its proxies as a road block to its hegemony in West Asia. The other is led by Iran and its allies, who see the West as antithetical to their regional power ambitions
How does this threaten global trade and India?
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Intensification of the conflict threatens global shipping lines, particularly as Israel tightens its grip on Hezbollah. Hezbollah has close ties with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are responsible for the majority of attacks on ships on the Red Sea.
This may disrupt global supply chains, and impact countries like India that are heavily reliant on the Suez Canal for trade.
The Iranian missile strikes on Israel pose significant threats to global trade, particularly due to the region’s strategic importance. The Middle East is a crucial hub for energy resources and trade routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. Any escalation in conflict can disrupt these critical shipping lanes, leading to supply chain disruptions, energy shortages, and price spikes globally.
For India, these developments are particularly concerning for several reasons:
- Energy Dependence: India relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East, with Iran and other Gulf states being key suppliers. Any conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf could cause oil prices to surge, increasing India’s import bill and inflating domestic fuel prices(
- Trade Routes: India is connected to the Middle East through sea routes vital for its exports and imports. Disruptions in these areas can delay shipments and impact industries dependent on raw materials, technology, and energy from the region.
- Geopolitical Risk: As a country maintaining good relations with both Iran and Israel, India could find itself diplomatically strained, affecting its broader foreign policy objectives and regional stability(
How will the US respond?
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The US is a month away from elections. On the one hand President Biden has vowed to stand by Israel. On the other, he cannot allow this to flare into a full-fledged regional war. In the wake of escalation, as Israel’s biggest ally, the US stands equally accountable as the power that took the world closer to war rather than peace. Equally, it is possible that its belligerent ally Israel is dragging America into a quagmire. All this when Russia, China, N. Korea—and Iran—are piling pressure on the US in the region and beyond.
What is India’s position?
India has expressed concern, and offered to aid communication between Israel and Iran. Its stand on the air strikes is terrorism has no place, Iranian missile strikes and that it stands in support of Israel, though pitching the need for respect for humanitarian law. Experts say the Israeli response has been hugely disproportionate: Israel’s bombing of Gaza has killed 40,000 Palestinians since the 2023 missile attack by Hamas claimed around 1,200 lives in Israel. India has maintained a cautious stance regarding the recent Iranian missile strikes on Israel, focusing primarily on the safety of its citizens in the region. The Indian government has issued an advisory urging its nationals in Israel to avoid non-essential travel and stay vigilant, adhering to local safety protocols. India’s Embassy in Tel Aviv is actively monitoring the situation and is in close contact with Israeli authorities to ensure the well-being of Indian citizens. India traditionally maintains a neutral position in conflicts between Middle Eastern nations, balancing its relationships with both Iran and Israel. New Delhi has strategic ties with Israel, particularly in defense and technology sectors, while also fostering strong diplomatic and energy relations with Iran. In light of the recent escalation, India is likely to continue advocating for peace and stability in the region, refraining from taking a firm stance that could affect its broader foreign policy objectives.
Shweta Singh is associate professor, department of international relations, South Asian University