What was long feared has just happened. After months of provocation by Israel, overnight missile strikes on Israel by Iran may have brought the world closer to the precipice. Now, any efforts to contain Iran will need the US to rein in Israel. Is it too late? Mint explains:
Why did Iran attack Israel?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said that the attack was in response to the killings of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoshan by Israel in Lebanon. It also noted the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. The attack is more than a military offensive. It indicates a belligerent Tehran delivering the message that if there is an attack on its sovereignty, it will not hold back from a direct offensive. As Israel and its ally US try to blunt Iran’s allies Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza, Iran has driven the message home loud and clear.
What comes next?
The strikes by Iran, in response to months of Israeli provocation, may have brought the world closer to a catastrophic war. The next few months will be crucial as Israel, Iran and its proxies, and other regional and global actors calibrate their next moves. Israel, with US backing, has vowed to avenge the strike. The raging war in West Asia needs to be read in the context of two contending scripts for regional order. One is led by Israel and the US, which sees Iran and its proxies as a road block to its hegemony in West Asia. The other is led by Iran and its allies, who see the West as antithetical to their regional power ambitions
How does this threaten global trade and India?
Intensification of the conflict threatens global shipping lines, particularly as Israel tightens its grip on Hezbollah. Hezbollah has close ties with the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are responsible for the majority of attacks on ships on the Red Sea.
This may disrupt global supply chains, and impact countries like India that are heavily reliant on the Suez Canal for trade.
How will the US respond?
The US is a month away from elections. On the one hand President Biden has vowed to stand by Israel. On the other, he cannot allow this to flare into a full-fledged regional war. In the wake of escalation, as Israel’s biggest ally, the US stands equally accountable as the power that took the world closer to war rather than peace. Equally, it is possible that its belligerent ally Israel is dragging America into a quagmire. All this when Russia, China, N. Korea—and Iran—are piling pressure on the US in the region and beyond.
What is India’s position?
India has expressed concern, and offered to aid communication between Israel and Iran. Its stand on the air strikes is terrorism has no place, and that it stands in support of Israel, though pitching the need for respect for humanitarian law. Experts say the Israeli response has been hugely disproportionate: Israel’s bombing of Gaza has killed 40,000 Palestinians since the 2023 missile attack by Hamas claimed around 1,200 lives in Israel.
Shweta Singh is associate professor, department of international relations, South Asian University
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