Amid the cacophony and disarray, Jalvaid Yadav is standing next to his fruit cart, keenly watching each passerby, hoping to attract customers. In his early sixties, Yadav wants the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to return to power when Delhi votes on 5 February.
His reason? Former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s “pro-poor emphasis.”
“We want a government that is pro-poor. Kejriwal has done good work in Delhi. He has given us free water, free electricity, improved education and healthcare, started Mohalla Clinics (centres that offer essential medicines and tests in several Delhi neighbourhoods) and given women free public transport. He thinks of the poor,” Yadav says.
“There should be someone other than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in power in Delhi. If the same party is in power everywhere, they will do whatever they want. In Delhi, we want Kejriwal; in the Centre, we want Modi,” he adds.
On the opposite side of the road, S.K. Pandey, a professor in a Delhi University College, and his friend, S.P. Verma, now retired, enjoy the winter sun as they chat sitting outside their colony. Behind them flows a big open drain, casually throwing up a whiff of odour every few seconds. The residential colonies seem dilapidated and uncared for, with huge dumps of garbage and open manholes adorning them. Pandey and Verma want the BJP in power.
Their reason? Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vikas (development) focus.
“We like Modi. He speaks of vikas and works towards it. Kejriwal never talks about development or crucial issues like pollution, the Yamuna or even roads. He is giving away freebies, which come from taxpayers’ money. What is the point of that? Look at the state of our roads, our colonies, our drains…no work has happened on any of these fronts,” Pandey says passionately, as his friend agrees.
View Full Image
The two opposing views on the same road at Karawal Nagar are a microcosm of Delhi assembly elections this year, defined by two competing and distinct narratives. On the one hand, is the very strong pro-poor and welfare-dominated pitch of the Kejriwal-led AAP. On the other hand, there are those who call out the visible lack of development on the infrastructure front under the Kejriwal government, and pin their hopes on BJP that speaks of development.
AAP won this battle of narratives five years ago. In the 2020 assembly polls, the party bagged 62 of the 70 seats with a vote share of 54%, leaving its main rival far behind at just eight seats, with a 38% vote share. Meanwhile, the Congress, the third key party in the fray, drew a blank, with a mere 4.3% vote share.
The AAP’s very significant vote share lead over BJP means that there has to be a massive anti-incumbency sentiment against the party this time around for BJP to cause a big enough dent.
The stakes
The battle for Delhi has different points of significance for its key players, and the stakes are high for all.
For BJP, it is a matter of prestige. Despite winning big in Delhi in the Lok Sabha polls under Modi’s aura—it won all seven seats in the 2014, the 2019, and the 2024 elections—success in assembly polls has remained elusive, with Arvind Kejriwal firmly guarding his turf and scuttling the BJP’s ambitions of ruling the state. In fact, BJP has been out of power in Delhi since 1998, making it a 27-year-long wait to rule the national capital.
With no chief ministerial face, BJP is relying entirely on the brand Modi, using slogans like ‘Modi ki guarantee’ (Modi’s guarantee). In the process, the party has made this election a Modi versus Kejriwal faceoff. After reverses in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll numbers, the party would also want to keep its popularity intact with credible performances in state elections.
For AAP, meanwhile, Delhi is a battle for survival. One, it is the only other state, besides Punjab, where it is in power. Two, these elections come in the backdrop of Kejriwal’s arrest, and that of several other AAP leaders, in an alleged liquor scam.
Surprisingly, issues which one might have thought would be hot-button ones—from the sheeshmahal controversy (BJP’s dig at the AAP government over an extravagant makeover of the chief minister’s residence) to the alleged liquor scam—seem rather insignificant on the ground. Among AAP supporters, there isn’t any real anger about the imprisonment or a vehement defence of the sheeshmahal. And among the detractors of AAP, or among BJP supporters, there is hardly any mention of corruption in the AAP regime. Thus, neither is corruption an issue, which the BJP had looked to corner AAP on, nor is Kejriwal being touted as a political victim on any large scale, which AAP had hoped for.
The third player, the Congress, has had an abysmal track record in Delhi in the last few elections. With a chequered record in 2024—a vastly improved performance in the Lok Sabha polls followed by two debilitating losses in Haryana and Maharashtra—the party would like to begin 2025 with at least a respectable performance in the national capital, a state it once ruled with glory.
Surprisingly, issues which one might have thought would be hot-button ones—from the ‘sheeshmahal’ controversy to the alleged liquor scam—seem rather insignificant on the ground.
“The Delhi elections are shaping up to be a thrilling contest, with BJP and AAP being the main contenders. The Congress, although a player, hasn’t yet made a significant impact on voters’ minds to be considered a viable alternative,” says Chandrachur Singh, political commentator and professor of political science at Delhi University’s Hindu College. “The Congress is like a player who has the will but not the competence or the resources required to run the race,” he adds. “I would believe that there is a considerable dent in AAP’s credibility, particularly among the middle class voters. I would believe that the image of Kejriwal certainly has a dent,” Singh further says.
BJP is seen as a nationalist party with a strong developmental orientation and strong leadership. However, when it comes to local calculations and local governments, voters get divided along different lines—cast, class, as well as ethnicity.
“The regional divides and loyalties play an important role. And so, if you put together these factors, you will find that the voting trends, particularly in the state-level elections, are quite different,” Singh says.
The suvidha (benefits)versus vikas commentary among voters, meanwhile, best defines the AAP versus BJP contest.
AAP’s trump card
The Arvind Kejriwal-led government has built its politics on a governance model of freebies. Like mentioned above, it includes free water and electricity supply (upto restricted quantities), free bus travel for women, as well as what it claims to be an improved education and healthcare system.
View Full Image
This continues to be the primary pitch of the ruling party—its support base, among the lesser privileged sections, is built on this model. Building on its welfare model, AAP has added the Mahila Samman Yojana, promising a monthly cash assistance of ₹2,100 to women aged 18 and above.
From east Delhi to west, the popularity of Kejriwal’s bijli-paani model is consistent among the disadvantaged sections.
Satish Kumar and Jai Singh, residents of Nangloi in the western part of Delhi, heap praises on Kejriwal, as they sit at the latter’s paan stall.
“We like everything about Kejriwal. Paani, bijli, school, hospitals, ladies travel—yeh sab kaam badhiya hai (his work in fronts like water, electricity, education, healthcare, free bus ride rides for women is very good),” says Satish Kumar.
They seem unperturbed by allegations of corruption against Kejriwal. “Even the ED (Enforcement Directorate) has found nothing against him. All these allegations are baseless,” Kumar adds.
In Badli, in the northwest part of the national capital, Raju runs a roadside tea and snacks stall off the busy main road. “My daughters go to a government school and I can see how much it has improved in terms of infrastructure, teacher approach, quality, as well as culture. Healthcare is also a big boon. I had to get a small surgery and private hospitals were quoting big amounts, but I was able to get it done for free and with proper care in a Delhi government hospital,” he says, as others sitting in his tea shop chip in to agree.
View Full Image
Bijli, paani but no sadak
With Modi continuing to remain popular in Delhi, BJP has been skirting the issue of its chief ministerial face, choosing to fight these elections in his name. The biggest grouse of those disillusioned with AAP, meanwhile, is the complete lack of development on the infrastructure front. With its focus solely on the social sector, the AAP government has left a perceptible gap in this area, even after 12 years of its rule. Some voters, therefore, may be tilting towards BJP.
Suman Devi, in her 50s, sits in her husband’s paan and snack stall in Karawal Nagar, as she feeds a guava to her grandson. “I like Modi and want to support BJP this time. See the condition of the roads; it’s worse than in the poorest villages,” she says, pointing towards the roads in her neighbourhood.
“I supported Kejriwal the last few times. But now, I want to vote for BJP, as AAP has done nothing. It has built no roads or improved the condition of drains. I have barely even received the benefits they are offering. Humein toh gadhe ki poonch mili (all we have got is a donkey’s tail),” she adds.
Lal Kumar Rai and Prakash of Haiderpur, in northwest Delhi, are rooting for badlaav (change). While Rai runs a tea stall, Prakash has a small roadside barber establishment.
“We need a change in Delhi this time. There is no development that has happened in the city. We are voting in Modi’s name; it doesn’t matter if BJP doesn’t have a face yet,” says Rai.
View Full Image
The BJP, meanwhile, is clearly aware of this massive gap in the AAP governance story. Earlier this year, just before the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced the dates for the Delhi elections, PM Modi inaugurated a bouquet of development projects in Delhi worth over ₹12,200 crore.
With this yearning for infrastructure growth, there is some fondness and nostalgia for the Sheila Dikshit era—she ran three consecutive terms between 1998 and 2013.
The swing factors
Political parties are hoping that the big determinant of this election would be the woman vote, which in the past few elections—most recently the assembly elections in Maharashtra—has been a key electorate that has held much sway. Thus, if AAP has the Mahila Samman Yojana, the Congress has announced the Pyaari Didi Yojana, under which it has promised a monthly cash transfer of ₹2,500 to women if voted to power. The BJP, meanwhile, already a master of women-focused cash transfer schemes, has also announced a monthly financial assistance of ₹2,500 to women under the Mahila Samridhi Yojana.
It is a problem of plenty for Delhi’s women voters, who want to keep their cards close to their chest and wait to see if any of these promises are actually delivered.
The big determinant of this election could be the woman vote. In the past few elections, most recently in Maharashtra, they have held much sway.
“We might not even get this money. Everyone is just making these promises to entice us. One can believe and reward parties only after we receive these benefits,” says Mona, who runs a chola kulcha (savoury snacks) kiosk in Mundka in west Delhi.
The other variable in these elections is the role of the Congress. How well can it perform and whose prospects will it end up denting, giving an advantage to the other side, especially among the minority community?
Arvind Kejriwal is obviously cognizant of the fact. He has already warned voters against voting for the Congress, which he claims will only “cut votes”.
In what increasingly seems like a two party contest, between the ruling AAP and the hopeful BJP, the Kejriwal versus Modi debate continues to rage and suvidha and vikas find themselves at loggerheads.
Source link